Winning 'Decision Season' — How Early Shoppers, AI Are Transforming Holiday Retail
Two-thirds of consumers are beginning their holiday shopping by October, according to a new report from InMarket. The marketing intelligence platform calls this earlier decision window "Decision Season" — the critical weeks when marketers can still influence what ends up in a shopper's cart.
Developed in partnership with Kantar, InMarket's 2026 Holiday Shopping Insights Report surveyed 1,983 U.S. adults in July to break down what drives Decision Season and how brands can secure a spot on shopping lists.
Key Findings:
- Higher prices alter strategy, not demand: While 70% of respondents said rising prices are reshaping their plans, 28% expect to spend more than last year, and 59% expect to spend the same. Nearly half (46%) will begin shopping earlier, and 58% plan to seek out sales and coupons more aggressively.
- Takeaway: Target under-45 audiences with messaging focused on budget-stretching and product upgrades. For the over-45 demographic, emphasize value framing and reassurance.
- AI is a utility for younger shoppers: Roughly half of Millennials (50.8%) and Gen Z (49.1%) plan to use artificial intelligence to find deals rather than brainstorm gift ideas. Older generations use AI less frequently — for now.
- Takeaway: Ensure holiday promotions are indexed for AI search crawlers. While younger demographics adopt AI fastest, Gen X and Boomers show strong openness to the technology, representing the largest growth potential.
- Retail operates on two distinct timelines: Last year, apparel and department store chains (such as Gap, Macy's and Best Buy) peaked around Black Friday. Conversely, major big-box, discount and specialty retailers (such as Walmart, Target and Costco) did not hit peak volume until the week before Christmas, accompanied by a gift card surge that reached seven times normal levels.
- Takeaway: No single calendar date works for every retail category.
- Omnichannel shopping dominates: No channel is in decline this season. While physical stores remain the reach leader, most consumers blend online and offline channels:
- 77% plan to shop in physical stores
- 70% plan to shop online marketplaces (e.g., Amazon)
- 46% plan to shop directly on retailer websites
- 35% plan to use Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store (BOPIS)
- Takeaway: Invest in online growth without pulling budget from physical stores. Consumers are active in both channels.
- Generational buying habits vary: Gen Z relies heavily on peak events, with 60% naming Black Friday as their go-to discount period, compared to just 27% of Boomers. Older shoppers prefer an extended timeline: 47% hunt for deals continually with no fixed date in mind, compared to 20% of Gen Z.
- Takeaway: Segment promotional strategies by age. Direct time-sensitive deals, exclusive bundles and Cyber Week promotions toward under-45 shoppers. Maintain an always-on value message for the 45-plus crowd, who do not wait for specific sales events.
"By October, two-thirds of shoppers are already underway, so the consideration set forms long before peak discounts land," said Peter Hartt, SVP of client strategy at InMarket. "That gives brands two jobs: Stay top of mind through September and October while consumers deliberate, and maintain visibility in-store when they purchase. Brands that only show up for the second job are competing for a decision that has already been made."
