4 Consumer Behavior Shifts to Watch During the Holidays
Holiday spending forecasts are sending mixed signals this year. Some predict a slight decline, while others like the National Retail Federation expect growth of more than 4%.
Shoppers still plan to celebrate, but they're questioning every purchase along the way. Is it worth the price? Would a cheaper version do? What do others think about it?
For marketers, this signals a behavioral shift. Brand recognition may earn consideration but no longer guarantees preference. As consumers become more selective, brands must give them a compelling reason to choose.
Here are four shifts to watch this holiday season, and what they mean for 2027.
1. Familiarity Won't Carry You This Year
For years, established brands could count on recognition, trust and habit to hold a spot in the cart. That advantage is wearing thin.
Nearly three in four shoppers plan to stretch their budgets this season, with many turning to private label as the smarter buy, according to Circana.
That leaves mainstream brands squeezed from both directions, with credible store brands below and premium or emerging brands telling a sharper story above. Recognition still gets you considered. It no longer gets you chosen by default.
Brands must be honest about what is genuinely wanted and what's simply habitual. If your product is the reason the family recipe tastes right, defend that premium with confidence. If you're in the cart out of habit, a deeper discount only buys time, because shoppers who come for the deal leave for the next one.
The question isn't whether consumers know your brand. It's whether they can explain why it's worth choosing.
2. Make the Host's Job Easier
With more than a third of shoppers scaling back holiday travel, more celebrations are moving home, creating an opportunity for food and beverage brands.
Forget the from-scratch recipes and elaborate tablescapes. Today's host wants the gathering to feel special without spending the weekend in the kitchen.
Winning brands will offer shortcuts that still let the host take the credit, whether an ingredient that elevates store-bought food or a drink that makes a casual night feel like an occasion. Familiar products can find new relevance when they make entertaining easier.
3. Assume You'll Be Fact-Checked
Consumers rarely take a brand's word for it. They check reviews, consult AI assistants and turn to Reddit for validation. AI-driven retail visits are expected to more than double this holiday season, according to Adobe, but shoppers still seek human reassurance.
An eMarketer and Reddit survey found shoppers were twice as likely to trust an honest discussion of a product's downsides as an influencer endorsement. Authenticity beats perfection.
Brands need claims that hold up beyond owned channels and credible voices who speak candidly about their products. The goal isn't to eliminate criticism, but to build confidence.
With Gen Z leading this shift, other generations won't be far behind.
4. Plan for the Whole Season
The holiday consumer is really several shoppers in one. The same person might hunt deals in early November, host on Christmas Eve, scramble for a last-minute gift on Dec. 23 and start a wellness reset on Jan. 2. Each of those moments calls for a different message.
More than half of shoppers start before Black Friday, according to Deloitte, and the season keeps going after the ball drops.
This requires closer coordination between consumer insights, creative, media and commerce teams. Rather than treating each holiday milestone as a separate campaign, brands should build connected experiences that respond to changing consumer needs.
The opportunity isn't to show up more often. It's to show up with a more relevant reason to buy.
A Preview of 2027
These behaviors won't disappear when the decorations come down. Shoppers will remain more deliberate, skeptical and willing to switch.
Marketers must see their brands through consumers' eyes. Ask AI what to buy in your category. Read reviews and Reddit threads. Understand where your brand delivers and falls short, then align insights, creative, media and commerce around what makes it worth choosing.
As shoppers become more deliberate about every dollar, brands must be equally deliberate about earning it. The winners in 2027 won't necessarily have the biggest budgets, but the clearest understanding of what consumers value.
About the Author
Sonja Evans is SVP of strategic planning and research at Blue Chip, a full-service brand commerce agency, where she leads strategic planning, consumer insights, research and analytics. She partners with brands to transform consumer, shopper and market insights into growth strategies that drive measurable business results.
