2026 Promotional Trends at Target
Target is promoting less this year. Not a marginal dip, either. It's a real pullback, and it's already changing what wins at the shelf.
Let me explain ... I work for a retail media agency with a support office in Minneapolis. We manage promotional and media programs for national brands across categories, from everyday CPG to beverage alcohol.
We work closely with enough brands to watch the promotional calendar shift in real time instead of reading about it after the fact. This is what Digits and its clients see and execute against in market right now, pulled from our own campaigns and analysis.
Three patterns stood out across Target's fiscal year to date, February through August. Each one changes how national brands should plan for fall.
Fewer Deals, More Room for National Brands
Traffic is coming back to Target after last year's boycott-driven dip. The retailer doesn't need to discount its way to a shopper anymore, and it shows. Promotional markdowns are down 10% year-over-year, fiscal year to date, and the drop isn't spread evenly. Target-led category promotions are down 11%. Storewide promotions, the blanket discounting Target used to rely on for foot traffic, is down a steep 29%.
Read that as a threat and you're missing it. It's an opening. Brand-funded deals, the ones vendors run and pay for themselves, are up 21% over the same period. The shelf space for promotion didn't disappear. It changed hands.
Circle Trades Deals for Loyalty
The bigger structural shift is happening inside Circle. As of Q2 this year, promotional markdowns tied to Circle are down 40% year-over-year, and that decline is set to accelerate through the back half. National brands are, with rare exception, locked out of running their own Circle deals.
The scale of it is easy to miss until you see the week-over-week numbers. Target used to run 200 to 300 Circle deals live at any given time, most of it national brand content. Now it's 5 to 10, and all Target-led. Circle used to touch roughly 70% of sales. Mass deals can touch 100%, depending on the offer.
If your team is still planning around Circle as a lever you control, that plan is already out of date. Target repositioned Circle as a loyalty program, not a promotional channel. Plan around that fact. Don't fight it.
Why Multiples Are Winning
There are fewer deals overall. Vendors are locked out of loyalty. So which promo structure actually performs in what's left? Multiples.
BOGOs (buy one, get one 50% off, for example) and mandated multiples (2 for $10 types) are outperforming everything else, delivering a 2.1 ROI against 1.7 for other promo types. That's not a small gap.
The mechanism is simple. Target has moved toward mass, automatically applied deals over the past two years, and those deals ask nothing of the guest. A multiples promo asks something: Buy two or more units to unlock it.
That friction is the point. Bigger baskets mean more incremental sales, and automatically applied discounts don't have that advantage right now. They may not get it back.
What This Means for Fall
First: Lean on BOGOs and mandated multiples on base business, especially in categories where multiples already show upside. It's the most efficient lift available right now, full stop.
Second: Don't drop percent-off or price-point deals. Sprinkle those on new items and priority SKUs, where the job is trial and velocity, not efficiency. Multiples work base business. They don't launch anything new.
Third (and this is what brands keep underestimating): Amplify the promotion with media. For example, a leading oral care brand client ran the identical BOGO 50% offer twice this year. One with media support and another time without it. Same brand, same shelf, same discount. The version backed by media delivered a 45% improvement in promo lift over the unsupported version.
That gap wasn't about the discount. It was the same offer both times. The only thing that changed was whether we put media behind it. That's still the piece a lot of brands treat as optional.
Editor's Note: This article reflects the analysis, insights and performance results observed by Digits Agency based on its own clients and data sources. Results may vary and are not representative of all advertisers. The findings, opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of Digits Agency and have not been reviewed, validated or endorsed by Target.
About the Author
Chris Thron is VP of retail media capabilities at Digits Agency, a leading retail promotions and media agency. It holds Roundel Media Studio Certification and runs a dedicated Target Center of Excellence. Thron has more than 12 years of experience helping brands build best-in-class promotional strategies at Target.
