Finding the Right Media Mix for CPG Brands in 2025
With economic uncertainty on the rise and consumer behavior in flux, CPG brands are under immense pressure to prove marketing ROI while continuing to build long-term brand equity. From the tightening grip of private-label competition to increasing retail media mandates and fragmented digital attention, the old playbooks are no longer enough.
Winning in 2025 demands a new mindset — one rooted in funnel balance, data-driven decisioning and cross-functional alignment between brand, performance and trade teams. Below, we break down what that looks like in practice.
Retail Media: Is It Sales or Marketing?
Let's start with one of the most urgent and confusing categories: retail media.
Some large retailers are asking for 25%-plus increases in retail media spend. For many brands, this feels less like an investment and more like a trade tax — a non-negotiable cost of maintaining shelf space. And when that spend isn't strategically planned, it becomes exactly that: a budget line with no clear ROI.
But when used intentionally, retail media can be a high-performing lever.
- Amazon Streaming TV is proving powerful by integrating ad delivery with precise audience data and purchase behavior.
- Instacart ads consistently deliver strong lower-funnel performance with higher repeat rates than typical search or display.
- Display across major retail media networks (RMNs) is seeing increasing efficiency, especially when aligned with broader media campaigns.
Keen's platform has shown that retail media ROI grew 6.2% year-over-year, particularly for brands who plan it within a full-funnel framework — not just as a line-item cost in their sales negotiations.
Takeaway: Retail media shouldn’t be siloed as either trade or marketing. It needs to be modeled, flighted and optimized like any other media channel to deliver scalable results.
Reframing Trade and Promo: Balance, Not Blame
Let’s set the record straight: not all promo spend is equal.
When we talk about "trade and promo," we’re referring to traditional tactics — FSIs, price cuts, shopper discounts — not modern performance platforms like Ibotta. Traditional trade still serves a purpose, but the returns are diminishing:
- Trade ROI declined 1% in 2024, despite a 12% increase in investment.
- Consumer promotions saw a 23% increase in spend, but flat ROI.
That doesn't mean CPGs are overspending across the board. It just means that when operating within a fixed budget, many brands are over-indexing at the bottom of the funnel while underfunding the top.
Meanwhile, platforms like Ibotta defy this trend. While technically promotional, Ibotta's long-term NPV and incremental profit performance far outpaces other trade tactics. These platforms blur the line between transaction and brand-building — and that's the point.
Takeaway: Reevaluate — not eliminate — your trade and promo strategy. And avoid generalizing performance across all bottom-funnel platforms. Some, like Ibotta, drive both short- and long-term value when planned intentionally.
Live Panel
Bradley Keefer will discuss breaking down silos for success on May 7 at Retail Media Summit. He'll be joined by Carli Feinstein of Craft & Commerce and Christen Spencer of Chobani.
For details and registration, visit p2piretailmediasummit.com
Search and Social: Consistent, High-Intent ROI
In the digital realm, search and social remain the most consistent performance drivers.
- Search made up 26% of media spend in 2024 and drove the highest ROI growth across all channels.
- Social increased to 19% of spend, with strong performance from short-form video and influencer-led creative.
- Brands shifting 5% of spend into search and social from underperforming channels saw a 4.3% average revenue lift within one quarter.
These channels dominate the customer journey — especially for meal ideas, product comparisons and reviews — and remain essential tools for reaching modern shoppers in real time.
Takeaway: Don’t treat search and social as add-ons. They’re table stakes in the modern mix — and they work best when connected to upper-funnel tactics and retail activations.
Upper Funnel Is Driving Long-Term Value
Upper-funnel investment isn't a luxury — it's a multiplier.
Enterprise brands (>$500M) allocate 61–79% of media spend to the upper funnel—and see stronger compounding returns. Mid-market brands are still closer to 50/50, leaving value on the table.
Keen simulations show that:
- Shifting just 5% of budget quarterly from bottom to top funnel can yield a 6–8% lift in multi-quarter NPV.
- One seasonal CPG brand saw a $12M YoY revenue gain by adjusting flighting and reallocating 12% of spend from traditional TV and trade to social, streaming, and retail media video.
Takeaway: It’s not about cutting performance—it’s about balancing the funnel so that your media strategy works together, not in isolation.
Break Down the Silos: Think in Systems, Not Channels
The real challenge isn't just media allocation — it's organizational fragmentation.
Brand, performance and trade teams often operate independently, with separate KPIs and planning timelines. This leads to missed interaction effects, inefficient weekly flighting, and under-optimized campaigns.
Keen platform data shows that weekly flighting optimization alone can drive 10–20% incremental profit — but only if you treat your mix as a system, not a set of tactics.
Takeaway: Funnel optimization isn't just a media problem. It's an organizational one. Cross-functional planning unlocks the biggest wins.
Build the Case for Incremental Budget, Not Just Reallocation
For many brands, rebalancing the funnel means making hard cuts. But what if the answer isn't cutting—but adding?
Forecasting tools in Keen's platform have helped clients:
- Justify a $2.5M incremental investment in Amazon Streaming, showing a 4.2x ROI over 12 months.
- Reframe retail media from "mandated spend" to "strategic growth" by modeling halo effects and long-term equity impact.
Takeaway: Use scenario planning and simulation to make the case for incremental budget that unlocks new growth — especially in underfunded funnel layers.
Final Thought: Stop Siloed Thinking. Start Funnel Optimization.
The question facing CPG brands in 2025 isn't just where to spend, but how to plan. It's not about choosing brand versus performance, or retail media versus programmatic. It's about full-funnel synergy, measured in both short-term revenue and long-term profitability.
When done right, your media mix becomes more than a cost center — it becomes a growth engine.
About the Author
Bradley Keefer is Chief Revenue Officer of Keen Decision Systems. As a seasoned startup and growth-stage specialist, Keefer has previously worked at IBM, Profitero and DataWeave. He is committed to enhancing Keen's sales organization across the entire customer journey, encompassing marketing, new client acquisitions, account management, and analytical support to ensure comprehensive client engagement and satisfaction.
